The Poinciana Crane

Great Yarmouth's!

Hottest deal sold in October was a 3/2 bank-owned property with almost 1,300 square feet of living space and on nice size that needed a lot of work. This one was on Great Yarmouth Court was a perfect blank slate. Schools, shopping.  Seller was offering financing with no minimum credit score requirement and a down payment requirement of 10% but with the benefit of no prepayment penalty.  Listed for $49,900.  Sold for $45,000.

Statewide Foreclosure Survey Closes

The Residential Mortgage Foreclosure Task Forceclosed an online survey that focused on the foreclosure issue in Florida.  They're in the process of tallying their survey, which will be made available on their website, www.flcourts.org.

We Called It

Back in January, we were able to use our statistical tracking of the Greater Poinciana area to show that the area was finally starting to come out of the housing-crisis woods.  We're glad to report that the trend continues.

We started at 80 homes in January to a high of 154 in March.  Poinciana is actually surging in sales more in 2009 so far than in 2006, which marked the end of the housing bubble.

2006 Redux: The Change Remains the Same

The bad news first: According to recent data from the MidFlorida MLS, foreclosures reign supreme in Poinciana.  Nearly 90% of all current sales are properties in some state of foreclosure, like short sales, bank-owned, and foreclosing properties. 

Other than that, Poinciana begins the new year like it was 2006.  With 79 sales in the month of January, a dip from 92 in December 2008, yet it is almost exactly how we started 2006.  (Click on image to see a close-up of the statistics.)

To widen the good news, the market is still getting rid of foreclosures and Poinciana is showing a five-month trend so far towards improvement in both sales and reduction of supply.  The percentage of existing homes in some state of foreclosure decreased, but by only 4% over the last 60 days.  A small change but heading in the right direction.

The number of homes on the market fell below 1,000 ... finally ... to 991 properties.  Barring another wave of foreclosures, Poinciana is headed in the right direction again.  Ready to buy?  Write us.

The Recovery's Landed

Long before many realized that the housing bubble had burst in 2006, I had asked my broker at RE/MAX Executive Group, "What happened to home buyers?"  Buyers were cooling and far too many homeowners were suddenly asking about short sales.  To serve these owners I asked RE/MAX leadership, "When are you going to schedule a short sale training for staff?"

But apparently business leaders had no clue of what was about to burst by 2007 and refused to offer training ... at first.  About six months later, they closed their Kissimmee doors without warning. 

That's about the time I began keeping statistics on Poinciana's housing demographics through the MidFlorida Regional Multiple Listing Service (MLS).  Today, after years of keeping track of Poinciana's MLS sales, inventory, and, now, foreclosures, I say with great relief that I've got good news.

We are at the beginning of a recovery!

An Improved Trend

So the markets around the world look pretty dismal and you've stopped watching TV.  Maybe started drinking or smoking again.  If you're looking for any good news in this market, come on down to Poinciana! 

Sales of existing Poinciana homes are now maintaining at an increase.  With four months straight of better-than-anything we saw last year in sales, homes are selling again. Could it be a trend? 

Sentinel Calls on Expert

When the Orlando Sentinel was looking for an expert in Poinciana home sales, they turned to Darhlene Zeanwick, who explained the seriousness of the housing crisis in Poinciana to Sentinel reporters.  One of the most stunning statistics is the REO-driven economy in Central Florida, is the "38% of homes in Poinciana in some state of foreclosure or short sale." 

What this means to homeowners in Poinciana who are ready to sell their homes today is that they will have to "compete against the bank," or, more correctly, "many banks."  In this community of many churches and the nation's largest homeowner association the APV HOA,

Bouncing Baby Bubble

As The "Four-Corners" Reporter focused their attention on Poinciana, Florida, on what looks an untamed painting of the world economic crisis, the local association manager, Jeannette Coughenor, referenced an eight-month inventory of homes in the area.  Data from the MidFlorida MLS suggests something more like ...

Ripe for Investments

Want to find out more if moving to Florida is a good move for you?   Ready to find out the real story on Florida's housing market? 

A 56-page report released by Florida Association of Realtors has some answers. Researched by their parent, the National Association of Realtors, the report, "Effect of Policy Changes on Homeownership - Focus: Florida," provides an overview of housing's impact, both nationally and in Florida.  It also analyzes possible changes the Florida Legislature could consider.  It covers issues such as transfer taxes, business receipt taxes, property taxes and general housing taxes.

Confidence Rising

Even as Obama, Biden, McCain, and Palin, each try to grab our attention for a brighter future, Florida's economists sound like they concur. According to University of Florida economists, happier days may be around the corner again. Consumer confidence among Floridians made huge gains in August, rising six points to 67 from its revised July index. This appears to suggest a turn in the midst of our international economic crisis.

Bottom Bouncing

A recent report by the Florida Association of Realtors® (FAR) agrees, we may have finally landed at the bottom of our housing crisis. Actually, bouncing is a more accurate description.

The market value for homes in Poinciana appears to be making some attempt to stabilize. Like skipping a stone in one of Poinciana’s many ponds, sales are bouncing between about 40 and 60 sales per month.

While some home values have declined, particularly in the Bellalago area, home sales have stayed steady in areas like Solivita and Crescent Lakes. Overall, property inventory has not increased much over the past year, staying below 1,200.

While sales have increased slightly, helping to keep home values from the downward spiral that the Poinciana area has been experiencing, the area’s absorption rate has been declining from a summer-time high of about five percent. Absorption rate for Osceola County stood at 3.98%, which reflects a one percent decrease in sales since late July. A total of 314 homes have been sold in Poinciana so far in 2008.

Overall in Florida, FAR recently reported that sales for single-family existing home sales rose for the first time in more than two years. While only six more homes sold in July 2008 than in July 2007, it could indicate stabilization in Florida's housing sector.  That's according to FAR.  We can't say that six extra sales makes a trend but agree with FAR's assessment that the bottom may be here.

Values on the Rise

Glimmers headlined in August that the housing crisis has finally hit the bottom and may be on the rebound. The decline in home prices is starting to ease and, in some cities, values are rising again. Existing home sales rose slightly and the glut of newly built homes fell to a five month low. Like music to our ears Moody's chief economist, Mark Zandi, said, "The bottom of the housing downturn is coming into view."

Reporter on Poinciana

When Lakeland newspaper, The Reporter, needed a local expert to help them understand the extent of the housing crisis in Poinciana, they didn't have to google "Poinciana Home."  They already knew they could turn to Poinciana's expert, Darhlene Zeanwick. Darhlene relayed statistics from the multiple listing service, the Osceola County Association of Realtors, and information only a local expert could know. To read the article, see The Reporter. The Reporter is a news media business covers news in Central Florida's "four corners" area, which includes Orange, Lake, Osceola, and Polk counties.

Housing Recovery Near Start

As a Poinciana homeowner myself, I find too many responsible homeowners being affected by the housing crisis. It is so rare that I am able to provide good news to homeowners these days, that when I do, I must blog it.

The good news is that the federal homeowners assistance program is kicking-in around here. It’s in the newspapers and TV. Everywhere. And while buyers have been too slow to come back to the market, there are signs that the buyer issue is improving.

Over the past month there have been more pending sales in Kissimmee. If the federal homeowner bail-out is effective, Poinciana should be out of the worst of the housing crisis by Summer 2009. (Spring, if Americans vote a compassionate presidential candidate into the White House this year.)

July Home Market – Sales Up Again

The market value for homes in Poinciana continues to decline but total sales increased for the second month in a row.  Although sales have increased, market values continue to fall, likely due to excessive inventory.

The number of homes sold increased from April to May and remained above 40 in June.  In July 2008, 72,465 people called Poinciana home in an area of 20,303 homes. 

The least expensive of these sells today for $41 per square foot.  The least expensive single family home in Poinciana has an asking price of $50,000.

Absorption rate for Osceola County stood at 4.04%, which reflects a steady increase from a low of 2.00% in January 2008, but inventory remained excessively high at over 1,100 homes on the market for sale. 

 

A total of 208 homes have been sold in Poinciana so far in 2008 reflecting average sales of slightly over one per day.  Solivita and Crescent Lakes maintain higher average sales and values than Poinciana-proper.  (Poinciana-proper refers to communities geographically within the Poinciana area but without "Poinciana" in their legal descriptions, areas such as Solivita, Crescent Lakes, Cypress Woods, and Bellalago.)

Lock Rate Recommendation

Friday's bond market opened down sharply following the release of stronger than expected employment figures. The stock markets are showing gains with the Dow up 66 points and the Nasdaq up 2 points. The bond market is currently down 23/32, which will likely push this morning's mortgage rates higher by approximately .250 - .375 of a discount point.

The Labor Department brought us today's big news with the release of April's Employment report. They said that the unemployment rate fell to 5.0% when it was expected to rise to 5.2%. The payrolls number was also bad news for bonds with a 20,000 job decline compared to the forecasted 75,000 drop. Those readings indicate that the employment sector may not be as bad as many had thought. This has hurt bond prices and led to this morning's increase in mortgage rates.

Crisis Deepens Slightly

Poinciana real estate continues to behave like a house of cards.  While price per square foot decreased once again, and list prices did not fall below last month’s low of $69,900, sales have decreased and inventory is once again on the rise. 

A total of 98 homes have been sold in Poinciana so far in 2008.  The least expensive of these sells today for $44 per square foot, a decrease of $4/SF from March 2008.

Inventory continues to rise in Poinciana while sales dipped slightly in April.   It is expected that May will show a new low for home values, as  sales continue to lag behind the now-increasing inventory in the area.

Sales & Inventory Increase

In March 2008 there were 70,578 people who called Poinciana home and 18,918 homes. The least expensive of these sells today for $48 per square foot, an increase of $6/SF from February 2008. While price per square foot increased, list prices fell again from a minimum of over $87,000 to a new low of $69,900, which represents the least expensive single family home in Poinciana. A total of 77 homes have been sold in Poinciana through March 31st.

While for most of 2007, homes sold at about one per day, in January and February, the daily average had dropped to about one sale every two days. March showed improvement with an average once again of one home per day. (Normal is about four homes sold per day.)

Previous reports on absorption rates reflected rates throughout Osceola County, a method that has been improved to focus on the Poinciana area only. Absorption rate for Poinciana as of April 9 was 3.24%.

During the first two months of 2008, inventory numbers appeared to have stabilized at slightly above the 1,000-home mark for Poinciana-proper; however March-April numbers are showing a renewed increase in inventory of existing family homes for sale. On April 9, the inventory for all of Poinciana was 1,636.

Between excessive inventory and low sales, the market value for homes in Poinciana continues to decline. Sales continue to lag behind the now-increasing inventory.

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Numbers referred to as Poinciana-proper do not include the communities of Poinciana, such as Solivita, Crescent Lakes, Cypress Woods, Bellalago, etc. ©Apr.2008, Darhlene E. Zeanwick. All rights reserved. Graph may not be duplicated or copied without permission.

Values Drop, Sales Up

POINCIANA (PHN) | In February of 2008 there were 70,476 people who called Poinciana home and 18,893 homes. The least expensive of these sells today for $42 per square foot, a drop of $17 from January 2008. The least expensive single family home in Poinciana is listed with an asking price of $87,500.

Absorption rate for Osceola County stood at 2.2% in January, a drop of 0.6% from December 2007. From, January to February inventory numbers appear to be stablizing at slightly above the 1,000-home mark. Inventory of existing homes on March 1^st stood at 1,060.

While for most of 2007, homes sold at about one per day, since January 1^st the daily average dropped to one about one sale every two days. A total of 28 homes have been sold in Poinciana-proper so far in 2008.

Between excessive inventory and low sales, the market value for homes in Poinciana continues to decline but only slightly as compared to previous months. Conclusion: If a buyer is looking to move to the Central Florida area, now is the time to buy in Poinciana.

# # #

Numbers in this report reflect an area referred to as Poinciana-proper. These numbers do not include its communities, such as Solivita, Crescent Lakes, Cypress Woods, Bellalago, etc.

©Jan.2008, Darhlene E. Zeanwick. All rights reserved. Graph may not be duplicated or copied without permission.

February Home Market Report–Continued Decline

POINCIANA (PHN) | In January 2008 there were 69,548 people who called Poinciana home and 18,683 homes. The least expensive of these sells today for $60 per square foot, a drop of $1 from December 2007. The least expensive single family home in Poinciana is listed with an asking price of $93,900.

Absorption rate, the rate at which properties are sold, for Osceola County stood at 2.8% in December, a drop of 0.2% from November 2007. A similar decline of 0.2% also occurred in Poinciana for a rate of 2.6% in December.

Although inventory dipped to just below 1,000 in December 2007, it rose again during the following month and stood at 1,059 on January 31.

While for most of 2007, homes sold at about one per day, since January 1^st the daily average dropped to one about one sale every two days. A total of 14 homes have been sold in Poinciana-proper so far in 2008.

Between excessive inventory and an absence of adequate buyers on the market, the value of homes in Poinciana continues to decline. Conclusion: If a buyer is looking to move to the Central Florida area, now is the time to buy in Poinciana.

# # #

Numbers in this report reflect an area referred to as Poinciana-proper. These numbers do not include its communities, such as Solivita, Crescent Lakes, Cypress Woods, Bellalago, etc.  ©Jan.2008, Darhlene E. Zeanwick. All rights reserved. Graph may not be duplicated or copied without permission.

Sales Since 2002

POINCIANA (PHN) | Our year starts with a chart of interest to Poinciana homeowners, showing sales of existing single family homes in Poinciana-proper.

Notes on Chart . . . 1. September 2004 fluctuation: Hurricanes hit through Central Florida for the first time in almost five decades bearing a direct inland blow on Poinciana. 2. June 2004 and April 2005 showed sales equal at 107 homes sold. Highest number of homes sold in one month was in June 2005 with a total of 129. The lowest number of homes sold was recently in November 2007 with a low of only 23 homes sold in a one-month period.

©Jan.2008, Darhlene E. Zeanwick. All rights reserved. Data was compiled from the MidFlorida Multiple Listing Service. This graph may not be duplicated or copied without permission.

The Poinciana Crane™ local blog. La Caballera de Poinciana™ blog en español. Poinciana @ Home™ Realtor.^®

Poinciana’s Threshold

Poinciana, Florida, started day one of 2008 with some exciting news. Inventory, the number of houses on its existing home market, dropped below 1,000, just in time to turn this number into a Poinciana 2008 countdown to normal, normal being an inventory of 800. Why 800?

For starters, 400 homes sold last year in this market. There're other reasons too, but this number is a solid indicator of a normal absorption rate for the area. Normal!

The MidFlorida MLS, showed 976 homes actively on the market in Poinciana-proper as of January 1, 2008. Happy new year!

And – when things do get back to normal – remember, you read it here – first – from Poinciana @ Home.

Hitting the Bottom in Central Florida

Lately, I've been getting this one, well, almost prodding, question about home sales in Poinciana. It's been, "Have we hit rock bottom yet?"

My response has been digitized in my brain while giving the same answer to everyone who asks, "Yes," I begin, "We're getting closer," then pause, "to be sure," then one last look before I reveal the verdict, "but not today." This week, however, I found myself done with this sort of response. With 2008 around the corner and March just three months away, it is in my professional opinion that we've finally hit the trend creating the foundation of our real estate bottom, an "absorption rate" that's calmly remained below 5% . . . all year.

Since April 2005, when our market began its current downward trend, I've been saying that the market needed to reach a "low plateau," a.k.a., rock bottom, before we'd see it rise again, and 2007 . . . all of it in fact . . . was rock bottom. While I cannot give you all the research that went into my current prediction, I can say that I've been accurate in my real estate predictions for as long as I've lived in the area, which seems forever these days. But enough with 2007, my prediction for 2008 is that sales will begin looking more normal.

Now don't mix "looking normal" with "actual normal," the latter which you can look forward to in 2009.  For those considering listing a home to sell in Poinciana: you'll be able sell in 2008, but only by working with either an Internet-savvy realtor or one who sells exclusively to naïve buyers, not many of those left in these parts. Or, your best option: Wait until 2009, preferably after the U.S. presidential inauguration, to list your home for sale.

For those interested in moving to Florida, Poinciana currently offers the best prices in the Orlando metropolitan area.

Chart source: OSCAR. iphone,badoo,facebook,dailymotion,webkinz,youtube,ebuddy,second life,hi5,club penguin,jeanne carmen

Poinciana’s February Home Market Report–Continued Decline

Poinciana (PHN) | In January of 2008 there were 69,548 people who called Poinciana home and 18,683 homes. The least expensive of these sells today for $60 per square foot, a drop of $1 from December 2007. 

Absorption rate, the rate at which properties are sold, for Osceola County stood at 2.8% in December, a drop of 0.2% from November 2007. A similar 0.2% decline also occurred in Poinciana to rate of 2.6% in December.

Although inventory dipped to just below 1,000 in December 2007, it rose again during the following month and stood at 1,059 on January 31.

While for most of 2007, homes sold at about one per day, since January 1^st the daily average dropped to one about one sale every two days. A total of 14 homes have been sold in Poinciana-proper so far in 2008.

Between excessive inventory and low sales, the market value for homes in Poinciana continues to decline. Conclusion: If a buyer is looking to move to the Central Florida area, now is the time to buy in Poinciana.

# # #

Numbers in this report reflect an area referred to as Poinciana-proper. These numbers do not include its communities, such as Solivita, Crescent Lakes, Cypress Woods, Bellalago, etc.

©Jan.2008, Darhlene E. Zeanwick. All rights reserved. Graph may not be duplicated or copied without permission.